Fraud by numbers – Iran Election
Posted on June 28th, 2009Tags: mathematics, politics, statistics
Mathematical analysis has been showing some odd outcomes in the Iranian election results. There have been a few posts on this already so I thought I’d try out the analysis for myself.
In a truly random distribution, you would expect to see each of the digits 0 – 9 to appear 10% of the time. When the numbers are manufactured (i.e. by a human) they usually do not meet this equal distribution. Here’s why … humans are awful at picking random numbers. We tend to pick numbers like 7 more often than numbers like 2, 4 & 5. Marketers use this to their advantage. Ever seen a headlines like “7 reasons why…”, “7 ways you can…”, etc.? The number 7 makes us feel that there must be some true reasoning or analysis behind the statement. A headline starting with “10 reasons why…” just isn’t as convincing. It doesn’t feel random enough to most humans.